April 27, 2012 | SANTA MONICA, Calif.
Continuing a trend of optimistic April used- and new-vehicle sales projections, Edmunds.com shared its estimations on Thursday, predicting the month’s used sales total would be 3.63 million.
Edmunds’ April used sales prediction translated into a used seasonally adjusted annual rate of 39.3 million, up from a used SAAR level of 38.9 million the site reported for March.
In terms of new models, analysts believe there will be 14.4 million light vehicles sold this month.
The surging new-vehicle sales performance so far this year led Edmunds to revise its 2012 sales forecast from 13.6 million to 14.4 million units.
“Higher consumer confidence, as well as warmer winter weather and strong fleet sales have spurred sales strength so far this year,” explained Edmunds.com chief economist Lacey Plache.
“We can expect the auto sales rate to stay elevated through most of the rest of the year, even as downside risks — like political and fiscal uncertainty in the U.S. and slowing economies in Europe and China — continue to loom,” Plache continued.
Edmunds.com estimated that 1,181,929 new vehicles will be sold in April. The projected sales figure would be a 15.8-percent decrease from March and a 2.1 percent increase over last April, a reading that’s unadjusted for number of sales days.
The site thinks the retail SAAR will settle at 11.6 million vehicles this month with fleet transactions accounting for 18.2 percent of total sales.
Looking beyond the overall new-model numbers, Edmunds indicated General Motors is expected to make the biggest month-over-month gains in market share of any Big 6 automaker this month, climbing 1.8 percentage points to 18.2 percent.
Analysts pointed out that Nissan, meanwhile is expected to show the biggest month-over-month dip of any major automaker, falling three percentage points to 6.7 percent. They contend the drop is mostly attributed to Nissan’s significantly lower fleet sales month over month, which is a typical March-to-April trend for the automaker as it begins a new fiscal year.
In terms of raw unit sales, Edmunds noted Chrysler is likedly to continue its string of sales success with an 18.9-percent increase in sales above April of last year.
And even with its month-over-month market share success, analysts added GM is projected to sell 7.3 percent fewer vehicles year over year, the biggest decrease of any major automaker.
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Edmunds.com April Sales Volume Forecast |
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| Automaker | April 2012 Forecast | April 2011 | March 2012 | Change From April 2011 |
Change From March 2012 |
| General Motors | 215,603 | 232,538 | 231,052 | -7.3% | -6.7% |
| Ford | 176,917 | 189,293 | 223,262 | -6.5% | -20.8% |
| Toyota | 174,923 | 159,540 | 203,282 | +9.6% | -14.0% |
| Chrysler | 139,373 | 117,224 | 169,381 | +18.9% | -14.7% |
| Honda | 123,919 | 124,799 | 126,999 | -0.7% | -2.4% |
| Nissan | 79,678 | 71,526 | 135,939 | +11.4% | -41.4% |
| Industry | 1,181,929 | 1,157,303 | 1,404,109 | +2.1% | -15.8% |
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Edmunds.com April Market Share Forecast |
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| Automaker | April 2012 Forecast | April 2011 | March 2012 | Change From April 2011 |
Change From March 2012 |
| General Motors | 18.2% | 20.1% | 16.5% | -1.9% | +1.7% |
| Ford | 15.0% | 16.4% | 15.9% | -1.4% | -0.9% |
| Toyota | 14.8% | 13.8% | 14.5% | +1.0% | +0.3% |
| Chrysler | 11.8% | 10.1% | 9.0% | +1.7% | +0.2% |
| Honda | 10.5% | 10.8% | 9.0% | -0.3% | +1.5% |
| Nissan | 6.7% | 6.2% | 9.7% | 0.5% | -3.0% |